This is a planning tool, not an avalanche forecast. Read the MSC Main Range report before you go.
Aspect.Kosciuszko NP · Main Range
11 cm · computed 07:22

Aspect — Kosciuszko Main Range backcountry brief

The outlook

Five day assessment

The call · Monday 21 September

No overnight refreeze

Nothing locked up overnight — the surface never lost enough heat, with the air bottoming out at 2.6 °C. Expect soft, heavy snow from the first run; solar aspects go isothermal by afternoon. Timing barely matters today, but sluff and wet-loose activity on steep terrain does.

Best aspectN
no window

Computed 07:22 from Open-Meteo and the Spencers Creek reading · wording assembled from templates · next run ~06:45 · how this works

Five day outlook. Monday 21 September: best aspect N, Skip, softening no window, maximum 10 degrees, overnight minimum 2.6 degrees (no hard refreeze), snowfall 0 centimetres, wind W 24 gusting 100 km/h, confidence high. Tuesday 22 September: best aspect N, Skip, softening no window, maximum 8 degrees, overnight minimum -2.2 degrees, snowfall 0 centimetres, wind NW 14 gusting 34 km/h, confidence high. Wednesday 23 September: best aspect N, Skip, softening no window, maximum 13 degrees, overnight minimum 1.4 degrees (no hard refreeze), snowfall 0 centimetres, wind W 11 gusting 24 km/h, confidence med. Thursday 24 September: best aspect N, Skip, softening no window, maximum 13 degrees, overnight minimum 4.5 degrees (no hard refreeze), snowfall 0 centimetres, wind NW 19 gusting 39 km/h, confidence low. Friday 25 September: best aspect N, Skip, softening no window, maximum 14 degrees, overnight minimum 5.8 degrees (no hard refreeze), snowfall 0 centimetres, wind NW 26 gusting 41 km/h, confidence low.
Thredbo top station
temp °C
snow
·
·
·
·
·
wind
W 24
g 100
NW 14
g 34
W 11
g 24
NW 19
g 39
NW 26
g 41

Weather Open-Meteo, downscaled to site elevation · depth anchor Spencers Creek 11 cm (Snowy Hydro, 17 Sept)

Aspects

Surface by face

~1940 m · Monday 21 September · drag the slider to watch the day turn · the amber band shows the faces the sun is working, fading where its input goes weak

NSWESthin

S · Skip · thin at 12:00

06:0018:00
All faces: Insufficient cover. Nothing set overnight — wet, unsupportive snow from the first run.

Little between the faces today — pick on terrain and hazards, not score.

Objectives

Worth it today

26 hand-verified objectives, each scored through its own lines and zones against the day's aspect picture and the 11 cm reading · conditions, not instructions

Nothing is skiing well today. The next objectives come in at about 60 cm at Spencers Creek.

Snow

Where the snow starts

Anchored to the Spencers Creek reading

Carried forward 4 days from the reading using modelled snowfall and melt: 0 cm at Spencers Creek, ±15 cm. The depths below build on that.

0 cm2000 to 2228 m
Carry your skis. Exposed heath, rock and creek crossings.
0 cm1850 to 2000 m
Carry your skis. Exposed heath, rock and creek crossings.
0 cm1700 to 1850 m
Carry your skis. Exposed heath, rock and creek crossings.
0 cmBelow 1700 m
Carry your skis. Exposed heath, rock and creek crossings.
On snow from the car: Thredbo top station · Mt Kosciuszko
Walk to the snowline: Mt Twynam · Guthega · Dead Horse Gap
Closed for winter: Charlotte Pass (road, no drive-up access until October)

Season to date · Spencers Creek, 1830 m

204060800CMZERO10.5 cm · 17 Sep12 May21 Jul17 Sep

Latest reading 11 cm on 17 Sept · carried forward to 0 cm today · trace is indicative between published readings, not a continuous record · Spencers Creek 1830 m · Snowy Hydro

The workings

The numbers behind the calls (Monday 21)

Every figure is computed; none generated · heatmap at ~1940 m

PW powderCK chalkSF softFM firmFZ frozenSL slushWD windTH thin
Hourly surface class per aspect at ~1940 m, 06:00 to 18:00.
Aspect06070809101112131415161718
NTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
NETHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
ETHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
SETHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
STHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
SWTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
WTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH
NWTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH

12:00 · gusts 41 km/h (sustained 10) · cloud 73% · freezing level 2540 m — drag a chart or use ← →

Wind gustskm/h04080transport634110Cloud cover%05010073Freezing levelm180026003400site 1937 m2540
Generated
20 Sept, 07:22 · forecast lead D+0 · confidence high
Weather
Open-Meteo hourly, downscaled to site elevation
Depth
Spencers Creek 11 cm, 17 Sept (Snowy Hydro, scraped)
The call
assembled from deterministic templates
One model, one person, one range.
Every number computed; the words checked against them. How this works.