This is a planning tool, not an avalanche forecast. Read the MSC Main Range report before you go.
Aspect.Kosciuszko NP · Main Range
68 cm · computed 13:16

Aspect — Kosciuszko Main Range backcountry brief

The outlook

Five day assessment

The call · Wednesday 22 July

Wet and heavy, and hard to see

    Only a marginal refreeze at -1.5 °C, so surfaces never properly set — expect wet, half-consolidated snow rather than corn, with 1.1 mm of rain and gusts to 52 km/h in the mix. Widespread rime ice underneath is glassy and slides easily, and whiteout is likely, so navigation will be work. N, NE and E ski best around 12:00–15:00, but keep expectations low and watch for wet-loose on steep terrain.

    Best aspectN
    12:00 to 15:00

    Computed 13:16 from Open-Meteo and the Spencers Creek reading · wording drafted and checked · next run ~06:45 · how this works

    Five day outlook. Wednesday 22 July: best aspect N, Good, softening 12:00 to 15:00, maximum 0 degrees, overnight minimum -1.5 degrees (no hard refreeze), snowfall 0 centimetres, wind NW 11 gusting 52 km/h, confidence high. Thursday 23 July: best aspect SE, Prime, softening 11:00 to 16:00, maximum -2 degrees, overnight minimum -5 degrees, snowfall 1.6 centimetres, wind NW 9 gusting 48 km/h, confidence high. Friday 24 July: best aspect E, Prime, softening 12:00 to 16:00, maximum -4 degrees, overnight minimum -7.2 degrees, snowfall 0 centimetres, wind NW 6 gusting 37 km/h, confidence med. Saturday 25 July: best aspect N, Good, softening 13:00 to 15:00, maximum -2 degrees, overnight minimum -4.4 degrees, snowfall 0.4 centimetres, wind NW 7 gusting 38 km/h, confidence med. Sunday 26 July: best aspect SE, Prime, softening 11:00 to 16:00, maximum 1 degrees, overnight minimum -3.9 degrees, snowfall 0.6 centimetres, wind NW 3 gusting 28 km/h, confidence low.
    Thredbo top station
    temp °C
    snow
    ·
    2 cm
    ·
    ·
    ·
    wind
    NW 11
    g 52
    NW 9
    g 48
    NW 6
    g 37
    NW 7
    g 38
    NW 3
    g 28

    Weather Open-Meteo, downscaled to site elevation · depth anchor Spencers Creek 68 cm (Snowy Hydro, 21 July)

    Aspects

    Surface by face

    ~1940 m · Wednesday 22 July · drag the slider to watch the day turn · the amber band shows the faces the sun is working, fading where its input goes weak

    NSWESsoft

    S · Good · soft at 14:00

    06:0018:00
    All faces: Soft through 12:00–15:00 — fine skiing, past its best. No solid overnight refreeze — wet, half-set snow rather than true corn.

    Little between the faces today — pick on terrain and hazards, not score.

    Tours

    Worth it today

    Top picks from a 51-route index, matched to the day's aspect picture and the 68 cm reading · conditions, not instructions · distances are drafted estimates, correct them from experience

    Short tours

    Up to 8 km round trip — the take-a-beginner bucket

    ● Favourable · softening 12:00 to 15:00

    Etheridge Ridge east bowls Thredbo top station

    2.8 km in · 2.8 km out · 330 m vert (one honest climb) · E / NE

    The unnamed 2180 m point on Etheridge Ridge is Australia's fifth-highest. East-facing bowls drop toward the Snowy River headwaters and Seaman's Hut. Highest continuous cover on the range and ideal morning aspect — the reliable default when the snowpack is thin. Lee-loaded in NW flow.

    • : loads under wind transport.
    • Serious navigation in whiteout: carry a GPS track.

    ● Favourable · softening 12:00 to 15:00

    South Rams Head Dead Horse Gap

    2.8 km in · 2.8 km out · 420 m vert (one honest climb) · S / SE

    Straight up the hill from Dead Horse Gap and the most accessible objective on the Main Range. Widely recommended as the entry point to Australian backcountry. Southerly aspect holds quality when solar faces have iced or tracked out. Short runs, but lappable.

    • Exposed granite tors between snow patches in a lean season.
    • Lower slopes thin out first: expect rocks late season.

    Day trips

    8–18 km round trip for experienced parties

    ● Favourable · softening 12:00 to 16:00

    Mt Twynam northeast face Guthega

    7 km in · 7 km out · 400 m vert (one honest climb) · NE / E

    Australia's third-highest peak and the classic Guthega day tour, via Illawong and up the Snowy River valley. Ideal morning aspect. The approach is the limiting factor in a thin year — trip reports describe grass-skinning 60% of the way to Illawong in low snow, with continuous cover only from the creek upward.

    • Snowy River crossing: the suspension bridge is the safe option on thin cover.
    • : loads under wind transport.
    • Long approach: most of the day is travel.

    ● Favourable · softening 12:00 to 16:00

    Mt Tate via Tate East Ridge Guthega

    6 km in · 6 km out · 350 m vert (one honest climb) · E / SE

    Reliable Guthega day tour, reachable via Guthega Trig and Consett Stephen Pass or directly up the east ridge. Forms a natural circuit with Consett Stephen Pass and Guthega Trig. Lower commitment than anything across the Snowy River.

    • Ridge line scours under wind.

    Overnight

    Beyond 18 km — plan to camp on the range

    ● Favourable · softening 12:00 to 15:00

    Mt Northcote Thredbo top station

    10 km in · 10 km out · 220 m vert (a short climb) · E / W

    Very flat summit; the skiing is on the flanks either side. Historically significant — a ski tow and lodge were built here in 1954 and described at the time as the best tow in the Kosciuszko area, until the hut burnt down in 1956. Part of the standard Clarke–Northcote–Lee–Carruthers circuit.

    • Remote: self-rescue distances are long.
    • Flat summit area is disorienting in cloud.
    • Charlotte Pass road closed for winter — distances shown via Thredbo top station.
    Nothing else in condition at 68 cm — the next candidates need ~70 cm at Spencers Creek.

    Snow

    Where the snow starts

    Anchored to the Spencers Creek reading

    122 cm2000 to 2228 m
    Continuous cover on all aspects. Everything's in.
    86 cm1850 to 2000 m
    Continuous cover on all aspects. Ski from the car.
    58 cm1700 to 1850 m
    Good cover. Isolated rocks on ridge noses and convexities. Pick your line.
    15 cmBelow 1700 m
    Carry your skis. Exposed heath, rock and creek crossings.
    On snow from the car: Thredbo top station · Mt Kosciuszko · Mt Twynam · Guthega · Dead Horse Gap
    Closed for winter: Charlotte Pass (road, no drive-up access until October)

    Snowline dropped to 1472 m today — Guthega is back on snow from the car.

    Season to date · Spencers Creek, 1830 m

    204060800CMZERO68 cm · 21 Jul12 May16 Jun21 Jul

    Latest reading 68 cm on 21 July · trace is indicative between published readings, not a continuous record · Spencers Creek 1830 m · Snowy Hydro

    The workings

    The numbers behind the calls (Wednesday 22)

    Every figure is computed; none generated · heatmap at ~1940 m

    PW powderSF softFM firmFZ frozenSL slushWD windTH thin
    Hourly surface class per aspect at ~1940 m, 06:00 to 18:00.
    Aspect06070809101112131415161718
    NFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    NEFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    EFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    SEFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    SFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    SWFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    WFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ
    NWFZFZFZFZFZFMSFSFSFSFFZFZFZ

    14:00 · gusts 44 km/h (sustained 12) · cloud 100% · freezing level 1850 m — drag a chart or use ← →

    Wind gustskm/h03060transport504412Cloud cover%050100100Freezing levelm182018901960site 1937 m1850
    Generated
    22 July, 13:16 · forecast lead D+0 · confidence high
    Weather
    Open-Meteo hourly, downscaled to site elevation
    Depth
    Spencers Creek 68 cm, 21 July (Snowy Hydro, scraped)
    The call
    wording drafted by Claude from the computed figures, validated so no new number can appear
    One model, one person, one range.
    Every number computed; the words checked against them. How this works.