Aspect — Kosciuszko Main Range backcountry brief
The outlook
Five day assessment
The call · Monday 21 September
No overnight refreeze
Not a day to plan around
Not a day to plan around
No refreeze, low confidence
Same warm pattern, nothing sets
Nothing locked up overnight — the surface never lost enough heat, with the air bottoming out at 2.6 °C. Expect soft, heavy snow from the first run; solar aspects go isothermal by afternoon. Timing barely matters today, but sluff and wet-loose activity on steep terrain does.
Computed 07:22 from Open-Meteo and the Spencers Creek reading · wording assembled from templates · next run ~06:45 · how this works
g 100 ⚑
g 34
g 24
g 39
g 41
Weather Open-Meteo, downscaled to site elevation · depth anchor Spencers Creek 11 cm (Snowy Hydro, 17 Sept)
Aspects
Surface by face
~1940 m · Monday 21 September · drag the slider to watch the day turn · the amber band shows the faces the sun is working, fading where its input goes weak
S · Skip · thin at 12:00
Little between the faces today — pick on terrain and hazards, not score.
Objectives
Worth it today
26 hand-verified objectives, each scored through its own lines and zones against the day's aspect picture and the 11 cm reading · conditions, not instructions
Snow
Where the snow starts
Anchored to the Spencers Creek reading
Carried forward 4 days from the reading using modelled snowfall and melt: 0 cm at Spencers Creek, ±15 cm. The depths below build on that.
Season to date · Spencers Creek, 1830 m
Latest reading 11 cm on 17 Sept · carried forward to 0 cm today · trace is indicative between published readings, not a continuous record · Spencers Creek 1830 m · Snowy Hydro
The workings
The numbers behind the calls (Monday 21)
Every figure is computed; none generated · heatmap at ~1940 m
| Aspect | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| NE | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| E | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| SE | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| S | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| SW | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| W | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
| NW | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH | TH |
12:00 · gusts 41 km/h (sustained 10) · cloud 73% · freezing level 2540 m — drag a chart or use ← →
- Generated
- 20 Sept, 07:22 · forecast lead D+0 · confidence high
- Weather
- Open-Meteo hourly, downscaled to site elevation
- Depth
- Spencers Creek 11 cm, 17 Sept (Snowy Hydro, scraped)
- The call
- assembled from deterministic templates
- One model, one person, one range.
- Every number computed; the words checked against them. How this works.